“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know”
Michel Eyquem de Montaigne, 1533-92 is a middle age Humanist, that shared his values in many books. You can enjoy reading him!
We have experts who (should) predict the future, economically, medically, psychologically, and …. they know! They have tribunes in newspapers, in media, and assert, all day long things that are not proved, rumors, rarely compliments, …
An expert (by Wikipedia) is someone who has a prolonged or intense experience through practice and education in a particular field. Informally, an expert is someone widely recognized as a reliable source of technique or skill whose faculty for judging or deciding rightly, justly, or wisely is accorded authority and status by peers or the public in a specific well-distinguished domain. An expert, more generally, is a person with extensive knowledge or ability based on research, experience, or occupation and in a particular area of study. Experts are called in for advice on their respective subject, but they do not always agree on the particulars of a field of study. An expert can be believed, by virtue of credential, training, education, profession, publication or experience, to have special knowledge of a subject beyond that of the average person, sufficient that others may officially (and legally) rely upon the individual’s opinion. Historically, an expert was referred to as a sage (Sophos). The individual was usually a profound thinker distinguished for wisdom and sound judgment.
In The Death of Expertise, Nichols condemns what he describes as the many forces trying to undermine the authority of experts in the United States. He blames higher education, the internet, and the explosion of media options for the anti-expertise and anti-intellectual sentiment which he sees as being on the rise. While conceding that experts do sometimes fail, he says the best answer to this is the self-correcting presence of other experts to recognize and rectify systemic failures.
|“||These are dangerous times. Never have so many people had access to so much knowledge, and yet been so resistant to learning anything.||”|
|— Tom Nichols, The Death of Expertise|
Tribunals rely on these same experts who “know”, and ruin lifes, and protect scammers because the tone of their voices is so certain, that it must be true.
Nature doesn’t like vaccuum, and when Something is empty, it is rapidly filled with what exists. This is why what is unknown is believed, more than certain and proved. But we could just say that it is just an asumption, and tell our ignorance. On the contrary, as nobody can prove it, one asserts a possibiity as being the Truth. We could stay humble, but our human nature put some pride in us, so that we can not be wrong.
Banks, that lead the economy, rely on experts, who shares their common same beliefs in committees, whose forecasts are always wrong, but they continue to share their expertise, just for personal reinssurance of the decision makers.
No one, not even the experts, really knows what’s about to happen
As a final conclusion, I would like that people looking for funds for their projects are more trusted, because they have a direct knowledge (maybe wrong, but they have one knowledge) of what they do, compared to anonymous or famous experts, who will be wrong anyway. Spend time with these people, not with advisors who usually are just a protection to avoid you to say NO directly. Experts play the bad role of a fuse …
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